Read The Athletic’s NFL survivor pool picks for Week 12.
Welcome to Week 3 of the NFL survivor pool. Hopefully, you are still standing.
The five most popular picks from Week 2 (Buffalo, San Francisco, Dallas, New York Giants and Philadelphia) all moved on, but some went a little easier than others. The Giants were a popular pick because of a matchup with Arizona but needed a historic second-half comeback to escape. Dallas and Buffalo had easier times dispatching the New York Jets and Las Vegas Raiders. The big losers last week were the 5.6 percent that went with Detroit to get a home win against Seattle. We hit with our chalk picks last week in picking Dallas, Buffalo and the Giants, and we went 1-for-2 on our contrarian picks (Adam made the mistake of trusting Denver).
GO DEEPER
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Week 3 Strategy
Renee Miller: At the start of the season, we had circled the Rams, Bucs, Panthers, Texans and Cardinals as the worst teams in the league based on last year’s offensive performance and/or the arrival of significant new personnel. Two weeks in, we’ve been surprised by the Bucs winning in Minnesota and the Rams beating Seattle along with a few other upsets. We know a little more about every team in the league, which allows us to move forward with a strategy that better balances offensive and defensive components. We’re much better at predicting offense than defense, and yet, as has been said – defense wins games. Dallas is the defense dominating every statistical category, with Cleveland, Buffalo, Kansas City and San Francisco not far behind. Using our admittedly imperfect understanding of defense – vs. pass, vs. run, overall – and aligning it with an opponent’s offensive strengths and weaknesses can offer an extra layer of security in our weekly picks. The Panthers and Texans still look like relatively safe teams to target, but when picking against Carolina, be sure it’s a team with a strong run game. Hold off on teams still in no man’s land with a wide range of possible outcomes: Giants, Bears, Packers, Commanders, Titans, Patriots, Saints, Rams, Jacksonville. Looking back, I wish I had used the Jaguars in Week 1.
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You’ll see my choices for Week 3 below with my justifications. Looking a little further out, you know I have San Francisco circled for a Week 4 tilt vs. Arizona. It’s been tempting to use them every week so far, but after Week 4 their schedule gets a bit more dicey (vs. DAL, at CLE, at MIN, vs. CIN). Week 5 offers up at least two good situations to use a second-tier team. I have my eye on Miami (vs. NYG) and Atlanta (vs. HOU). In Week 6, I’m hoping Joe Burrow looks like he deserves to be the highest-paid player in the history of football as the Bengals host Seattle. We’ll see what happens over the next few weeks, but so far, Seattle has been awful defensively allowing the fourth-most points in the league. If you’ve saved Buffalo, Week 6 might be a good time to deploy them vs. the Giants, who have allowed the most points to opponents.
Adam Gretz: This could be a significant week for survivor pools because there are some huge favorites across the NFL, with Dallas, San Francisco, Kansas City, Jacksonville and Buffalo all coming in with a better than 75 percent chance to win their games.
As such, they are all getting pretty evenly picked in survivor pools with Dallas, San Francisco, Kansas City and Jacksonville all getting picked at a better than 18 percent rate.
Chances are, at least one of those heavy favorites will get upset. This is, after all, the NFL and bad teams beat good teams almost every single week. There is so little margin for error that you always have to be on the lookout for it. The questions going into your survivor pool picks will be which team is most vulnerable for an upset, while also weighing future value for the teams you might be most confident in picking.
Dallas, Kansas City and Jacksonville might be the safest picks this week, given their opponents. Dallas is this week’s team going against Arizona, and given the way the Cowboys have looked through two games that looks like a classic hammer vs. nail matchup. It might be a similar story for a Chiefs team with Travis Kelce and Chris Jones back (with a week of play under their belts to get back up to speed) against a Chicago team that looks awful through two games.
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As obvious as teams like San Francisco and Dallas look this week, I’d be hesitant to pick them based on potential future matchups. San Francisco still has Arizona (next week) and a Nick Chubb-less Cleveland over its next three games.
Kansas City also has Zach Wilson, and the Jets are looming in Week 4.
You have many options over the next few weeks that could allow you to hold off on some of the biggest favorites this week.
Teams we have already used: Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills
Week 3 Chalk Picks
| Team | Opponent | Pick % | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
vs. Chicago | 24.5% | -13.5 | |
vs. Houston | 22.6% | -9.5 | |
at Arizona | 17.4% | -12.5 | |
vs. NY Giants | 17.0% | -10 | |
vs. Indianapolis | 6.1% | -8 |
Pick projections from OfficeFootballPool. Lines from BetMGM.
Renee Miller: Dallas over Arizona
Right now, the Cowboys are the best team in the league. They’ve scored the most points and allowed the fewest. Plus, the defense leads the league in sacks and turnovers. After Arizona, Dallas runs into a trickier schedule (vs. NE, at SF, at LAC, bye, vs. LAR, at PHI). There are some winnable games in there for sure, assuming the Cowboys stay healthy and the Patriots and Rams don’t improve. I feel more confident using them now than I will until Week 10 or 11. Smaller pools may not even last that long, so now’s the time. Arizona has done some impressive things defensively (nine sacks, two picks and two fumble recoveries) and certainly gave the Giants a scare in Week 2, with Joshua Dobbs improving dramatically through the air and on the ground. But let’s be honest, neither Washington nor New York compare to this well-oiled Cowboys offense. As massive 13-point favorites, the Cowboys are the no-brainer pick for Week 3.
Adam Gretz: Jacksonville over Houston
I haven’t loved how Jacksonville has played so far this season, and I don’t necessarily love their next few matchups after this week. They have Atlanta looming next week in London, but I think there are better picks if you have managed to save teams like San Francisco (against Arizona) and Kansas City (against the Jets). After that Atlanta game, the schedule toughens up for Jacksonville dramatically with games against Buffalo (in London), and at Pittsburgh and New Orleans before their bye week. Those are not easy places to play, and even if you want to argue that Jacksonville is better than Pittsburgh or New Orleans, the road aspect changes a lot.
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Houston still seems like a team with low-hanging fruit to pick against, even if the Texans have given the Jaguars fits in the past. I don’t see that being enough of a deterrent from going with the Jaguars here.
I am betting on Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars offense breaking out against a Houston team that doesn’t have much going for it right now.
Week 3 Contrarian Pick
Adam Gretz: Detroit over Atlanta
Atlanta is one of the more surprising 2-0 teams in the league entering Week 3, but I am not buying what this Falcons team is selling right now. They haven’t really played a top team yet, beating a bad Carolina team and a Green Bay team that is a complete unknown, while they also haven’t had to leave the state of Georgia yet.
Bijan Robinson has a chance to be a star, but I don’t fully trust Desmond Ridder at this point, especially when he is 0-2 in his first two road starts in his career.
The Falcons first road test of the year will be a Detroit team that should be the favorite in the NFC North at this point. I know they lost to Seattle on Sunday, but the Seahawks are a playoff team with powerful offense and it came down to overtime.
The Lions are not getting a lot of attention in survivor picks this week (less than two percent picking them as of Tuesday) most likely due to the combination of there being so many other heavy favorites and strong matchups, and the Lions still have some decent future value. But when it comes to future value I still see a lot of teams floating out there with more value than them long-term, and I just really like this matchup more than some of their short-term games. I think the 60 percent chance they are getting this week is underselling them a bit and overrating Atlanta’s chances. Atlanta hasn’t played a team like this or in an environment like it will find in Ford Field.
Renee Miller: Miami over Denver
As 2-0 Miami hosts the 0-2 Broncos Sunday afternoon, there are several reasons to like the Dolphins beyond their low percentage picked. As the home team hosting a Mountain time-team at 1 p.m. ET, the Dolphins are one of the biggest favorites of the week at minus-6.5. Denver’s historically vaunted defense hasn’t been so stout this year, ranking in the league’s bottom half in passing and rushing metrics. Miami can score either way, as Raheem Mostert demonstrated versus New England (121 yards and 2 TDs). Tyreek Hill (255 yards, 3 TDs) and Jaylen Waddle (in concussion protocol, questionable for Week 3) make up one of, if not the best WR duos in the league. The Dolphins defense played much better in Week 2 than in Week 1 at LA Chargers, hitting Mac Jones eight times for four sacks and recording two takeaways. I’ll take them in their home opener vs. an inconsistent Broncos team that has lost to Las Vegas and Washington in their first two games.
(Photo of Tony Pollard: Richard Rodriguez / Getty Images)
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